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Residents of the northeastern part of Arkansas along the New Madrid fault should be prepared for a high-magnitude earthquake, the University of Memphis Center for Earthquake Research and Information says.
Gary Patterson, the center's information services director, said Tuesday that there is a "significant probability" that a major trembler could rock the region.
"There's always reason to be aware when you're in an area that has the probability to have a a magnitude 6 or greater," Patterson said.
There have been six earthquakes measuring 2 or above along the southern part of the New Madrid fault zone since May 1, and four earthquakes near a 4 magnitude since February, he said.
"It is unusual to have that many fours, but we're only basing that on 30 years worth of data we have to compare it too," Patterson said. "Earthquakes are kind of like hundred-year floods, these things don't follow like clockwork."
Despite the increase in seismic activity, there is no way to forecast whether a larger earthquake will hit, the scientists said.
"We don't think there's any reason for an increased level of concern. There's not a larger event that those would have been precursors too," he said.
On average, there are 150-200 earthquakes in the state each year, Patterson said. The most recent 2.3 magnitude earthquake near Manila on Sunday put the number at 99, which is at the high end of normal occurrences, he said.
Haydar J. Al-Shukri, the director of the Center for Earthquake Education and Technology Transfer at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, said there have only been two other times in state history where magnitude 4 earthquakes have happened in such rapid succession.
"Does this mean we'll see bigger one? We don't know at this point," Al-Shukri said Tuesday.
The Arkansas Department of Emergency Management Web site urges Arkansans to prepare for a large earthquake in the region because such an earthquake could cause extensive damage.
There are links for individual and family preparedness, as well as preparedness for pets, schools and businesses on the site.
Some suggestions include knowing safe and danger spots in the home, keeping a list of emergency phone numbers and developing networks with other families.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050720/ap_on_sc/earth.....NlYwM3NTM-
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